2024/02/02 19:56
The RSV Forecast Hub will serve as a collaborative forecasting challenge for weekly laboratory confirmed RSV hospital admissions. Each week, participants are asked to provide national- and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic forecasts of the weekly number of confirmed RSV hospitalizations for the following three weeks. The RSV Forecast Hub is open to any team willing to provide projections at the right temporal and spatial scales. We only require that participating teams share point estimates and uncertainty bounds, along with a short model description and answers to a list of key questions about design.
Those interested in participating, please see the README file in the Github repository.
The Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RSV-NET) is a network that conducts active, population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed RSV-associated hospitalizations in children younger than 18 years of age and adults. The network currently includes 58 counties in 12 states that participate in the Emerging Infections Program (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Tennessee) or the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Program (Michigan and Utah). Age- and state-specific data on laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalization rates are available for 12 states and the US from RSV-NET spanning 2017-18 to present (RSV-NET CDC Webpage). Age-specific weekly rates per 100,000 population are reported in this system.
The data has been standardized and posted on the rsv-forecast-hub github target-data/ folder and is updated weekly. The target in this data is the weekly number of hospitalizations in each given state (inc_hosp variable), for all ages and for each age group. To obtain counts, we have converted RSV-NET weekly rates based on state population sizes. This method assumes that RSV-NET hospitals are representative of the whole state. To obtain national US counts, we have used the rates provided for the “overall RSV-NET network”. The data covers 2017-present. Reported age groups include: [0-6 months], [6-12 months], [1-2 yr], [2-4 yr], [5-17 yr], [18-49 yr], [50-64 yr], and 65+ years. The standardized dataset includes week- state- and age-specific RSV counts (the target), rates, and population sizes.
RSV hospitalization forecasts for the United States (national-level) for all age groups (0-130) :